A poll-by-poll look at Ford’s victory

Today’s map looks at the mayoral election at the poll level. The map shows how the mayoral candidates fared in 1,110 polls across the city. The result is a much more nuanced picture than was provided by the ward-based maps yesterday.

It unfortunately excludes self-contained polls without geographic areas (other than the single building they’re in), there being no easy way to map them with this kind of exercise.

The map (which shows Ford support) displays a large .kmz file (at over 1MB), so I’ve linked to it through the image below rather than embedding it in the page.

Each poll has a pie graph breaking down the local mayoral vote:

Of 1,110 polls:

Rob Ford’s bottom 10:

Place Ward Poll Ford vote Where’s that?
1101/1110 27 35 15% North of Church and Wellesley
1102/1110 27 44 15% Church and Carlton
1103/1110 27 71 14% SE of Carlton and College
1104/1110 28 21 14% Bleecker between Carlton and Wellesley
1105/1110 27 7 12% SW of McMurrich and Belmont
1106/1110 20 7 11% Central Annex, centred on Brunswick
1107/1110 27 41 10% Wellesley and Homewood
1108/1110 27 49 10% South of Church and Wellesley
1109/1110 20 16 9% U of T St. George campus
1110/1110 28 57 9% Toronto Islands

and top 10:

Place Ward Poll Ford vote Where’s that?
1/1110 2 5 87% Centred on Rexdale between Martin Grove and Kipling
2/1110 2 21 87% NW of Dixon Rd and Islington
3/1110 2 4 86% SE of Martin Grove and Westhumber
4/1110 2 10 86% SW of Albion Rd and Elmhurst
5/1110 2 16 84% NW of Islington and the 401
6/1110 2 17 84% NE of Kipling and Rexdale
7/1110 2 1 83% NE of Kipling and the 427
8/1110 2 6 83% NE of Kipling and Hinton Rd
9/1110 2 15 83% NE of Islington and the 401
10/1110 2 22 82% N of Kipling and Dixon Rd

13 thoughts on “A poll-by-poll look at Ford’s victory

  1. This is amazing, Patrick. Thanks for posting it. I am fascinated by data like this, and to see it represented visually … well, I probably won’t get anything else done for a few hours. 🙂

  2. Fascinating at how you can see the differences down to the building! I live at Islington and Lakeshore in ward 6, to my surprise the areas that have lower property values with nearby heavy industry and/or huge empty former factory sites had more support for Ford than the more suburban areas of single unit homes with the occasional low rise or triplex closer to the lake with lots of green space and beautiful parks nearby. There’s more people who rely on social services living in the areas that supported Ford than there are living the areas with less Ford support, I would have thought they would have been worried about getting the services they rely on reduced or taken away by Ford in his cost cutting but nope. Unless of course they didn’t vote but their neighbours who are doing okay financially and didn’t need any social services from the city so weren’t worried about losing them but loved the idea of lower taxes did vote in large numbers. I have no idea what the truth might be, of course that’s just a guess.

    Anyways thanks for a very interesting map!

  3. Patrick,
    as a political journalist who doesn’t make maps for a living, thanks for taking the time to make a map with the vote breakdown on a poll by poll basis for all city wards. Awesome. Kris

  4. this is trully amazing….could you also do a “what if” scenario where etobicoke is not part of toronto?? take away the etobicoke votes to see if smitherman could have won..

  5. This sucks. The economic and cultural hub did not vote for him. Next time we really need to get out a higher percentage of voters in the districts that really counts. These people are not peers. They are too idiotic to determine the fate of so many.

  6. I was trying to find a poll that Joe Pantalone won. There are a few in his ward that looked close, but it looks like 19011 may be the only one where he edged out both Rob and George.

    It’s fascinating to scroll around and watch the mood of the electorate change.

  7. thomaus: Looking at the spreadsheet, you’ve got it right – 19011 was the only poll in the city where Pantalone had a plurality. 19011 falls within Harbord/Crawford/Dundas and Jersey, one block E of Grace.